Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 3.694483 4.046545 4.459170 4.991304 5.681075 6.581764 7.924537
2024-12-15 3.233337 3.659870 4.200805 4.974882 6.136521 8.016331 12.057841
2024-12-22 2.918667 3.359025 3.941031 4.824446 6.279172 9.047589 17.877688
2024-12-29 2.785255 3.260418 3.916241 4.979258 6.940699 11.678675 60.814945
2025-01-05 2.589009 3.050256 3.697604 4.775024 6.863822 12.567060 NaN
2025-01-12 2.424940 2.868391 3.497309 4.561908 6.694696 13.064585 NaN
2025-01-19 2.313081 2.750019 3.378071 4.464946 6.741209 14.520034 NaN
2025-01-26 2.272549 2.728325 3.400769 4.617163 7.418211 21.178243 NaN
2025-02-02 2.256814 2.739897 3.474651 4.877646 8.550940 52.217883 NaN
2025-02-09 2.199494 2.685116 3.435099 4.908171 9.059266 367.431814 NaN
2025-02-16 2.152316 2.642110 3.410314 4.964072 9.717258 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.067974 2.538006 3.274748 4.763069 9.300079 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.020211 2.490387 3.236596 4.780993 9.843805 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 1.969675 2.436048 3.183118 4.757996 10.232819 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 1.906633 2.359290 3.085446 4.620720 10.009540 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 1.888194 2.350867 3.106254 4.761610 11.351487 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.826705 2.271983 2.996832 4.575625 10.720997 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.766991 2.194245 2.886609 4.380684 10.005070 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.724985 2.143248 2.822100 4.291699 9.887118 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.716379 2.144493 2.850605 4.431312 11.266580 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.719097 2.163684 2.912822 4.669178 14.000262 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.696513 2.140980 2.895843 4.696967 15.172125 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.677608 2.123496 2.887554 4.747808 16.887841 NaN NaN